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Muhmmad shakir


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Member since 12 / 2018

Lottery Predictions - Exposing the Whole Truth



Lottery predictions; Bah, humbug. That's what many people say. Others think that using lottery number analysis to produce lottery predictions Jio Lottery Winner  is perfectly valid. Who's right? Many players are simply left sitting on the fence without the clear road to follow. If you do not know where you stand, then, perhaps this informative article will reveal the truth and give you a clearer picture of who's right.


The Controversy Over Making Lottery Predictions


Here is the argument typically espoused by the lottery prediction skeptics. It goes something like this:


Predicting lottery numbers is wasted effort. Why analyze a lottery to produce lottery predictions? All things considered, it's a random game of chance. Lottery number patterns or trends don't exist. Everyone understands that all lottery number is equally likely to hit and, ultimately, every one of the numbers will hit the same quantity of times.


The Best Defense Is Logic and Reason


Initially, the arguments appear solid and based on an audio mathematical foundation. But, you're about to discover that the mathematics used to aid their position is misunderstood and misapplied. I believe Alexander Pope said it best in'An Essay on Criticism'in 1709: "Only a little learning is a harmful thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate mental performance, and drinking largely sobers us again." Quite simply, a little knowledge isn't worth much originating from a person who includes a little.


First, let's address the misunderstanding. In the mathematical field of probability, there's a theorem called the Law of Large Numbers. It just states that, as how many trials increase, the outcome will approach the expected mean or average value. When it comes to lottery, which means eventually all lottery numbers will hit the same quantity of times. In addition, I totally agree.


The initial misunderstanding arises from the words,'as how many samples or trials increase '. Increase from what? Is 50 drawings enough? 100? 1,000? 50,000? The name itself,'Law of Large Numbers ', should give you a clue. The next misunderstanding centers around the usage of the phrase'approach '. If we are going to'approach the expected mean ', how close do we really need to get before we are satisfied?


Second, let's discuss the misapplication. Misunderstanding the theorem results in its misapplication. I'll demonstrate what I mean by asking the questions that the skeptics forget to ask. How many drawings does it take before the outcome will approach the expected mean? And, what's the expected mean?


To show the applying of Law of Large Numbers, a two-sided coin is flipped numerous times and the outcome, either Heads or Tails, are recorded. The intent is always to prove that, in a fair game, how many Heads and Tails, for many intents and purposes, will be equal. It typically requires a few thousand flips before how many Heads and Tails are in just a fraction of 1% of each other.


Lotto Statistics


In relation to the lottery, the skeptic proceeds to use this theorem but never specifies what the expected value must be nor how many drawings required. The aftereffect of answering these questions is extremely telling. To show, let's look at some real numbers. For the purposes of this discussion, I'll use the TX654 lottery.


Within the last few 336 drawings,(3 years and 3 months) 2016 numbers have been drawn (6x336). Because there are 54 lottery numbers in the hopper, each number must be drawn about 37 times. Here is the expected mean. Here is the point where the skeptic gets a migraine. After 336 drawings, the results are nowhere nearby the expected value of 37, aside from in just a fraction of 1%. Some numbers are far more than 40% higher compared to the expected mean and other numbers are far more than 35% below the expected mean. What does this imply? Obviously, when we plan to apply the Law of Large Numbers to the lottery, we will need to have additional drawings; far more!!!


In the coin flip experiment, with only two possible outcomes, typically it will take a couple of thousand trials for the outcome to approach the expected mean. In Lotto Texas, you will find 25,827,165 possible outcomes so, exactly how many drawings do you consider it can take before lottery numbers realistically approach their expected mean? Hmmm?


Lotto Number Patterns


This really is where the argument against lottery number predictions falls apart. For example, if it will take 25,827,165 drawings before the expected values of all 54 lottery numbers are in just a fraction of 1% of each other, it can take 248,338 years of lottery drawings to reach that time! Amazing! We're talking geological time frames here. Are you going to live that long?


The Law of Large Numbers is intended to be placed on a long-term problem. Trying to use it to a short-term problem, our life time, proves nothing. Taking a look at the TX654 lottery statistics above shows that. In addition it demonstrates that lottery number patterns and trends exist. In reality, inside our lifetime, they exist for many lotteries. Some lottery numbers hit 2 to 3 times more regularly than others and continue do this over a long time of lottery drawings. Serious lottery players know this and utilize this knowledge to enhance their play. Professional gamblers call this playing the odds.

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